An injury-epidemiology & human-rights report
by Prof. Marcello Ferrada de Noli
After one of the 381 US-drone strikes in Pakistan
While conducting the supervision of a Master Thesis in the subject injury epidemiology at the Karolinska Institutet, [1]
I came to the reflexion that the actual number of fatalities in
war-related events such as combats or air strikes, might be
significantly higher than those reported in the “body counting” sites,
also used as sources by the media.
Concretely, I realized that the figures
did not include injured individuals that died after been transported as
wounded to other localities, such as hospitals or camps. The demise
occurring after, even long afterwards, and as consequence of injures
received in the combats or air strikes. In other words, media reports on
“war casualties”– in the context of the given combat or air-strike
event which is the subject in the report – invariably refer as
fatalities only to those who perished in situ and at that very occasion.
The findings, which I reported at international Injury Research conferences in Vienna, [2] and Prag 2004, referred the following epidemiological problematic leading to an underestimation in the assessing of casualties:
- A particular epidemiological confounding may occur when the variables of the study are ill-defined or the conceptual extension of the entities under study is used in a too broad meaning.
- One example is if we assign to “casualties” both fatalities and injured victims and in the third part analysis the toll is read as only fatalities ipso facto at the time of the referred armed clash or combat.
Now, if the above estimating-problem is
huge referred to regular military personnel reported as fatalities, it
is just logical to conclude that such bias is higher prevalent when
referred to civilian populations victims of drone-strikes. This, partly
because of the areas targeted commonly correspond a) to countries with
poorer hospital facilities or epidemiological administrative services,
b) to areas populated mostly by poor people, that due to SEC-factors
would have lesser possibilities to have their peers’ fatalities (long
time after the injury-event) reported.
I argue that a similar situation occurs
with the multiple reports in the international Human Rights community
trying to assess the impact of drone-strikes amidst the civilian
population. The reports refer partly to civil casualties derives from
drone-attacks, and partly to the physical collateral damage in the
humble infrastructures and habitat of the victims.
On the other hand, the wider the number
of reports, the more imprecise is growing the epidemiological estimate
of drone-related fatalities or drone-related injuries at all. Also,
important media outlets and blog reports have focused on this issue.
Counting of confirmed civil casualties caused by US drone strikes
1. The figures I present here correspond to confirmed cases of fatalities. Hence, they do not include a further estimation referred to
a) victims that died long time afterwards, as a sequelae of injuries received at the strike.
b) victims as the result of fatal events reported as “likely caused by drone-strike”
c) fatalities reported as drone-strike related but that correspond to other so-called cover operations
Total number of US-drone strikes
N= 459
Total number of casualties among civilians
N= 1138
Total number of casualties among Children
N= 214
Sources
[the link-list of sources will be continuously updated. I the reader knows of a further source, please email link to professorsblogg@mail.com]Human Rights organizations sources
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/press-releases/amnesty-international-human-rights-watch-release-dual-reports-on-drone-strikes
Media sources
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/drone-strikes-killing-more-civilians-than-us-admits-human-rights-groups-say/2013/10/21/a99cbe78-3a81-11e3-b7ba-503fb5822c3e_story.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/22/world/asia/civilian-deaths-in-drone-strikes-cited-in-report.html?_r=0
Research analysis and media-investigative reports
http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/category/projects/drones/
http://www.livingunderdrones.org/numbers/
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115353/civilian-casualties-drone-strikes-why-we-know-so-little
[1] “Epidemiological Bias in Assessment of War-Related Injuries During Iraq War Between 20th March 2003 To 20th March 2004“.
Thesis. Ime Akpan John, MD, PhD. Supervisor Prof. Dr. Marcello
Ferrada-Noli. Department of Social Medicine, Karolinska Institutet,
2005.
[2]
M Ferrada de Noli, I A John, L Svanström (2004): Epidemiological Bias
In Assessments Of War-Related Injuries: The Case Of Iraq. Safety 2004.
P. 230 Institut Leben/Kuratorium fur Schutz und Sicherheit, Vienna,
Austria. Referred in http://www.docstoc.com/docs/84208837/KIbroschyr-vers2pmd
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